Tuesday, September 17, 2013

EPL Ratings: Now with Total Shots Ratio

On Saturday I published an article looking at the goal differential of every team in the EPL, adjusted for home field advantages and opponent strength. Goal differential was my natural statistic of choice for a team rating due to its importance in Basketball and Baseball.

I realized, however, that that may not be the case in Soccer. After looking around a bit, I read research that showed Total Shots Ratio would be a better indicator of team quality than goal differential. TSR is just the percent of shots in a game one team has.

Here are the updated rankings using TSR. The column labeled TSR shows the expected percentage of shots in a match against a league average team at a neutral location. (I've included the goal differential numbers and points for comparison):

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